Hi Grant, thanks for your comment and interest in my article! I see what you are getting at, but the whole point of this research was to look solely at how the standings shift (or rather, remain the same) from the mid-way point of the season to the end, independent of any external factors. Additionally, I hear a lot about the Phillies “soft” schedule, but frankly I’m not buying much into it. The Phillies actually have the exact same record agains teams above .500 as the Dodgers (15-9), and being the team with the best record in baseball, they will naturally play fewer games against teams over .500. There is also an uncharacteristically high number of sub-.500 teams across baseball, due in part to teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees and Guardians being so dominant. So more games overall are played against sub-.500 teams (this was even more true at the time I wrote this…apologies for the delayed reply)
I previously noted this observation on Neil Paine's Substack, but I'll reiterate it here. The Phillies appear to me to have one of the softest schedules for the first 3 months of the season that I've ever seen in 55 years of watching baseball.
Today they were in Detroit for an allegedly "tough" inter-League tilt on the road. AL games on their plate have also included the White Sox, Angels and Blue Jays. Now, they did play Boston and Baltimore as well...but dropped those series.
Of course, they have a big four games series against Miami coming up next - at home. That'll battle test 'em.
I could be wrong, but I continue to feel that their schedule is an outlier for which historical references might not easily apply. Beyond that, they have played 43 at home; only 36 on the road thus far. At home they are 31-12, but on the road a more pedestrian 21-15.
Strength of schedule has to matter at some point. FanGraphs has them barely over .500 for the remainder - 46 and 38 - for a total of 98 wins - If I am interpreting their projections correctly. That feels about right to me.
Philadelphia could get 100 wins, but I'm not so sure as July hits...I'm more certain that their record, whatever it is at the end, will overstate their actual strength if they face LA or another solid competitor in the Postseason.
I would be interested in your thoughts as to SoS and possible reversion over the next 3 months. Thanks.
A quick follow-up. By my count, when the Phillies play Atlanta on July 5th, fewer than 28% of their games will have come against a team with a winning record (even including San Diego as a winning team despite hovering at .500).
The bad news is that winning teams tend to show up in the Playoffs - Miami and Colorado won't be there.
Hi Grant, thanks for your comment and interest in my article! I see what you are getting at, but the whole point of this research was to look solely at how the standings shift (or rather, remain the same) from the mid-way point of the season to the end, independent of any external factors. Additionally, I hear a lot about the Phillies “soft” schedule, but frankly I’m not buying much into it. The Phillies actually have the exact same record agains teams above .500 as the Dodgers (15-9), and being the team with the best record in baseball, they will naturally play fewer games against teams over .500. There is also an uncharacteristically high number of sub-.500 teams across baseball, due in part to teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees and Guardians being so dominant. So more games overall are played against sub-.500 teams (this was even more true at the time I wrote this…apologies for the delayed reply)
I previously noted this observation on Neil Paine's Substack, but I'll reiterate it here. The Phillies appear to me to have one of the softest schedules for the first 3 months of the season that I've ever seen in 55 years of watching baseball.
Today they were in Detroit for an allegedly "tough" inter-League tilt on the road. AL games on their plate have also included the White Sox, Angels and Blue Jays. Now, they did play Boston and Baltimore as well...but dropped those series.
Of course, they have a big four games series against Miami coming up next - at home. That'll battle test 'em.
I could be wrong, but I continue to feel that their schedule is an outlier for which historical references might not easily apply. Beyond that, they have played 43 at home; only 36 on the road thus far. At home they are 31-12, but on the road a more pedestrian 21-15.
Strength of schedule has to matter at some point. FanGraphs has them barely over .500 for the remainder - 46 and 38 - for a total of 98 wins - If I am interpreting their projections correctly. That feels about right to me.
Philadelphia could get 100 wins, but I'm not so sure as July hits...I'm more certain that their record, whatever it is at the end, will overstate their actual strength if they face LA or another solid competitor in the Postseason.
I would be interested in your thoughts as to SoS and possible reversion over the next 3 months. Thanks.
A quick follow-up. By my count, when the Phillies play Atlanta on July 5th, fewer than 28% of their games will have come against a team with a winning record (even including San Diego as a winning team despite hovering at .500).
The bad news is that winning teams tend to show up in the Playoffs - Miami and Colorado won't be there.