With Willie Mays Gone, Who is the Greatest Living Ballplayer?
The "Say Hey Kid", considered by many to be the greatest baseball player ever, passed away Tuesday.
Just two days before Major League Baseball was set to honor the legend at the monumental game between the Giants and Cardinals at historic Rickwood Field, Willie Mays died peacefully in San Francisco at the age of 93. Mays’ career in baseball was one in which few, if any, could rival. His 24 All-Star Game appearances trails only Hank Aaron, no centerfielder has won more Gold Gloves (12), he ranks 6th all-time in home runs with 660, sits at 3rd all-time in career Wins Above Replacement, and has more stolen bases than anyone with more than 350 home runs (remember, Mays had 660).1 Even more incredibly, he did all of this while missing nearly two full seasons to serve our country in World War II. It would be no hyperbole to crown Mays as the greatest all-around player to ever set foot on the diamond.
With Mays now gone, the title of “greatest living player” must be passed on. The question is, who takes that crown? Naturally, I crunched the numbers. By taking a weighted average of the all-time rankings of players in terms of a few select key statistics, I’ve generated my own lists.
Position Players
I looked at position players and pitchers separately, given the statistics used to assess each often differ greatly. For position players, I examined Wins Above Replacement (over entire careers), Wins Above Replacement per 162 games (to measure dominance while adjusting for the length of careers/playing time), an offensive component, a defensive component, and a baserunning component. The specific stats were WAR, WAR/162 games, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (Def), and FanGraphs’ Base Running (BsR). I chose these as they all adjust for the era and playing environment of the player, and to account for each aspect of the game. I then found the all-time rankings of players in each statistic. I applied weights to the ranks, giving 40% to WAR, 20% to WAR/162, 20% to wRC+, 10% to Def, and 10% to BsR. Using the geometric mean to limit the average being dramatically pulled up or down by an outlying high or low ranking in one stat, and account for the fact that some stats are dependent upon another (i.e., WAR/162 is a product of WAR), I generated a score for each player. A lower score is better. The table below shows the top-25 players in baseball history, dead or alive. Since the goal of this little project was to find the best living player, those still living are in bold.
Pitchers
When looking at Pitchers, I used WAR, Games per Win Above Replacement (G/WAR), FIP- (Fielding Independent Pitching relative to league average), and WHIP- (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched relative to league average). FIP estimates a pitcher’s ability to prevent runs independent of their defense. WHIP measures how good a pitcher is at keeping runners from reaching base. These two stats, along with WAR and G/WAR, account for all important roles of the pitcher - keeping runners from reaching base and keeping runs from scoring. The “minus” stats are also used here to keep the assessment relative to the league in which they played and neutralize the impact of different eras. The weights applied here were 40% for WAR, and 20% for each G/WAR, WHIP- and FIP-. Geometric mean was again used for the same reasons as with position players. However, it may be even more crucial here as FanGraphs’ WAR calculation is based off of FIP. I should also note that all WAR calculations are an average between Baseball Reference WAR and FanGraphs WAR, as each uses slightly different calculations. Below are the best pitchers of all time by this approach.
The Greatest
It may pain many of you that Barry Bonds, the face of the steroid era, sits atop the list for position players, but there is no denying that from a pure numbers standpoint the guy was unmatched. Interestingly, current Angels centerfielder Mike Trout is the next-best living player, sitting at 9th all-time. This just makes the legacy and career of the oft-injured Trout all the more a question of “what could have been”. For pitchers, another controversial figure, Roger Clemens, reigns supreme among the dead and alive. More living and active players appear on the pitcher list, which isn’t too surprising given the increasing dominance of pitchers in recent years. I think it is important to view these lists separately, as pitchers and the stats in which they are assessed by are so different from other players. Relatedly, WAR for pitchers is calculated in a totally different way than WAR for position players. The only truly fair thing to do is have both a “greatest position player” and “greatest pitcher”.
So, who reigns supreme now with Mays gone? The numbers say Bonds and Clemens, but I can fully understand why someone wouldn’t be able to accept that given their ties to PEDs. Ultimately, the answer lies in the eye of the fan and what each individual values about a ballplayer. I give you what the numbers say, and you can value that as much or as little as you chose. Do you think Bonds and Clemens should be exiled due to their steroid ties? Then you may lean toward Trout and Pedro. There is really no perfect answer, this just brings more ammo to the debate. And honestly, aren’t the fiery debates between passionate fans among what makes baseball so special?
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