Week 4 College Football Predictions

Forecasted lines for each game this week.

The model got back on track this week! We were 56-7 (89%) straight-up and 32-28 (53%) against the spread. In comparison, the market was 53-7 (88%) straight up (note that not all games had available lines, which is why the total number for the market only consisted of 60 games). Week 4 kicks off tomorrow night, here are my model’s picks!

Week 4

Upset Picks:

• Houston (+3.5) over Cincinnati (-3.5) - Predicted 7.9-point win for Houston

• Kansas (+2.5) over West Virginia (-2.5) - Predicted 9.1-point win for Kansas

• Coastal Carolina (+3) over Virginia (-3) - Predicted 7.6-point win for Coastal Carolina

• Rutgers (+3.5) over Virginia Tech (-3.5) - Predicted 1.2-point win for Rutgers

• Florida Atlantic (+2.5) over UConn (-2.5) - Predicted 1.4-point win for FAU

• Minnesota (+2.5) over Iowa (-2.5) - Predicted 17.3-point win for Minnesota

• Baylor (+2) over Colorado (-2) - Predicted 0.9-point for Baylor

(Odds via DraftKings or FanDuel, based on availability - 9/17)

Model Performance to Date:

Keep up with the model here: https://open.substack.com/pub/beyondthescoresports/p/college-football-predictions?r=3gmk5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web