Unpacking The Early Field of NL MVP Contenders
Two teammates lead the way, but an unexpected pitcher may be closer than we think.
Going into this season, the consensus was that there is a solid chance a Los Angeles Dodger will win this year’s National League MVP. In late March, DraftKings had Mookie Betts at +650 odds to win MVP, with teammate Shohei Ohtani right behind at +750. This corresponds to implied odds of 13.3% and 11.8%, meaning there was a 25.1% chance a Dodger would be the National League’s most valuable player. Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. was the favorite heading into the season (+500 odds), but unfortunately suffered a season-ending torn ACL this past week in a botched stolen base attempt. Quite frankly though, Betts and Ohtani have been putting together such incredible seasons (and Acuna’s season has been fairly disappointing by his standards), that this didn’t shake up the race too much. While I discussed in my last article how the AL had a pretty crowded field with no clear front-runner, the NL field is a bit more lean.
The Contenders
In all honesty, Betts and Ohtani have little competition at this point in the season. To spice things up a little bit though, I added Milwaukee catcher William Contreras, who currently has the 3rd-best odds per FanDuel, and NL home run and RBI leader Marcell Ozuna of the Braves into the mix. Below is how they stack up stats-wise.
As I noted with the AL contenders, while raw numbers can tell us a lot, it is important to put it in context and view how these players stack up relative to the league. Below are the league rankings of each of the four contenders within each stat.
It should be noted that Ohtani’s dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement) is so low because, as a designated hitter, he literally doesn’t play defense. This makes his 3.1 accumulated WAR even more impressive, as it has all come from hitting while being essentially punished for not playing defense. Nobody in their right mind can argue that Betts and Ohtani aren’t the frontrunners, but Contreras and Ozuna appear closer than many may have been giving them credit for. Does the fact that Betts and Ohtani are on the same team matter? Some may argue that having a great supporting cast helps a potential MVP candidate, as it gives them more opportunities to produce and takes away the burden of carrying the weight of the whole team. Others could say that it takes away from ones MVP argument in that they are a less valuable asset to a team when better talent is around. Also, one may get less attention when surrounded by near-equally good players and fail to have their talents fully appreciated. Both seem like reasonable arguments. In reality, I have found that this really doesn’t matter much. The correlation between the number of players on one’s team with a WAR of 6 or higher and winning an MVP is 0.227. This translates to teammates with 6+ WAR accounting for a mere 5% of the variation in winning MVP. While you may hear arguments about how Betts and Ohtani are helped (or harmed) by playing both on a great team and alongside each other, in all likelihood they’d have just as good of a chance to win MVP if they were on the Miami Marlins.
Designated Hitter Disadvantage
While playing with Betts may not harm Ohtani’s chances, the position he plays (or more appropriately, doesn’t play) may. Ohtani was forced into the full-time DH role as his off-season Tommy John surgery will keep him off the mound until at least 2025. While he has won MVP twice already (2023 and 2021), he has done so in large part due to his added elite contribution on the mound. In fact, no player whose primary position is DH has ever won MVP. There have been some really good seasons by DHs too. Below is a list of the best seasons, by Wins Above Replacement, among players who played the majority of their games as DH. Ohtani’s on-pace stats, based on his percentage of team games played, are included on this list.
There have been some pretty impressive DH seasons, and the fact that none have them have been deemed worthy of a league MVP suggests DHs are at a disadvantage by not playing defense. Can Ohtani continue his monster year and break this curse of the DH?
Could We Have A Pitcher?
It’s not too much easier to win MVP as a pitcher, especially in recent years. Only two full-time pitchers have won the MVP in the past 31 years; Justin Verlander in 2011 and Clayton Kershaw in 2014. Phillies unforeseen ace Ranger Suarez is making us believe we could (maybe) see it again this year. Before Shota Imanaga got absolutely torched against the Brewers on Wednesday night, I would have thrown him into this conversation too. His outing on Wednesday dropped his numbers considerably, putting him well below Suarez in most pitching metrics. Suarez, assuming he is able to keep up his current production (which is a BIG assumption), he’s on pace to track pretty close to the last two pitchers to do it.
Ranger Suarez currently ranks first in the league in WAR (among Pitchers), Wins, Winning Percentage, WHIP1, Hits/9, Win Probability Added (WPA), ERA, and ERA+2. He is also in the top-7 in FIP3 (5), Strikeouts (6), and K/BB4 (7). To play just once every five days or so and be considered the most valuable player in the league requires exceptional dominance. To have a chance at an MVP, a pitcher really needs to lead the league in nearly all major categories. Kershaw and Verlander’s MVP seasons back this up. Like Suarez, these pitchers were at the top of the league in nearly every major stat. Below, we see the league rankings in major pitching stats for each of these pitchers, comparing where Ranger Suarez is as of May 30th to where Kershaw and Verlander ended up at the end of their MVP seasons.
Who Will It Be?
Much like the American League, this will likely be a close race, even if there are a few less serious contenders. I want to hear from you, who do you think will end up winning? Cast your vote below. I’ll say that my pick right now is Mookie Betts (although as a Phillies fan I’d love to see Ranger defy the odds), but we all know a lot can change between now and October. We will see how it plays out.
(Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched
ERA relative to league average, with 100 the average and higher being better. For example, an ERA+ of 200 means a player’s ERA is 2-times better than league average.
Strikeout-to-walk ratio