Selection Sunday Reaction
Where the committee got it right, where they got it wrong, and two teams to watch
As usual, Selection Sunday brought some controversy. The main talking point has been the inclusion of North Carolina into the field, especially give UNC’s Athletic Director Bubba Cunningham is the chair of the selection committee. Just to be totally clear here, I have no suspicion of any collusion. Cunningham had to be absent for any discussion relevant to UNC and could not participate in any vote surrounding the team. However, this was not the only thing the committee got wrong. On the flip side, this is not an easy job, and credit to the committee for still getting a lot right.
What The Committee Got Right
Florida as the Final 1-Seed
This ultimately came down to Florida and Tennessee after Alabama and Michigan State failed to reach the conference tourney finals. This Gators squad might just be the hottest team in college basketball. If you filter the data at Bart Torvik, over the past six weeks (since February 3rd) Florida is the second-best team in the nation, behind only Duke, whose superstar Cooper Flagg and star defender Maliq Brown are nursing injuries and questionable to start the NCAA tournament. Florida had received a Torvik game score of 99 (out of 100) in 5 of their last 6 games. They slacked on March 5th against Alabama, when they had an inexcuseable 98.
Spoiler alert, my new NCAA Tournament model, which I will debut later this week, projects the Gators to win it all.
Indiana Out
Apologies to everyone who wanted to see the Mike Woodson revenge tour, and and a hilarious course of events if the Hoosiers got in and happened to win a few tournament games.1 Indiana frankly is not a great team. They are 48th in KenPom, behind Ohio State, Northwestern, and SMU, the latter two being well off the bubble.2 Yeah, the Hoosiers have wins over Michigan State in Lansing and at home against Purdue, but that’s really it. Their other quad-1 wins came against Penn State on a neutral court and at Ohio State. Both of which are borderline quad-1 at best, in my opinion.3 Indiana beat essentially nobody in their non-conference, with their best win coming against 12-20 Providence on a neutral court. They also lost to Louisville and Gonzaga. Yeah, they are playing better of late, but they just got blasted 72-59 to Oregon in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.
What the Committee Got Wrong
I'll resist the UNC banter. I’m sure you’re all tired of hearing that by now.
Louisville as an 8-Seed
Frankly this is a joke. Louisville ranks 23rd in both KenPom and the NET, which would place them as a 6-seed. They rank even better in Wins Above Bubble (WAB) at 17th and strength of record (SOR) at 11th. They came into the game ranked 13th in the AP poll—equivalent to a 4-seed! If the committee was punishing Louisville for playing in a “bad” ACC, then why did they include UNC? On top of that, how could they rank Clemson three seed-lines higher after they beat the Tigers less than a week ago? Teams like Louisville have been successful in the past, per Bart Torvik’s similar efficiency profiles four of the ten most similar teams to this Cardinals squad has advanced to the Final Four.
My Elo ratings have Louisville in line to be the best 6-seed, and in dropping to an 8 they draw a matchup with a pesky and, in my opinion, under-seeded Creighton squad who just lost in the Big East title game. My Elo ratings slot Creighton as a 7-seed, two lines ahead of their actual 9-seed. The aggregate prediction from BracketMatrix.com had Louisville’s seed projection at 5.8. This was an egregious mistake by the committee.
Ohio State Left Out
Hot take—while most people are yelling and screaming about West Virginia not getting in, I believe the omission of the Buckeyes was a bigger error.4 Ohio State ranks 39th at KenPom, ahead of at-large teams Arkansas, Xavier, Texas, San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Utah State. The Buckeyes are 6-11 in quad-1 games, going 3-7 in quad 1-A, with no quad-3 losses. Compare this to UNC’s 1-12 quad-1 record and quad-3 loss. Vandy also went a very comparable, yet slightly less impressive, 3-7 in Q1-A and 5-9 in all Q1 games. Moreover, the Commodores rank 56 in BPI, 49th in KenPom, and 42nd at Bart Torvik, compared to Ohio State’s 37th BPI, 39th KenPom, and 41st Torvik ranks. Eight of the ten most comparable teams by efficiency metrics, per Bart Torvik, made the tourney, with half winning their first-round game.
Teams to Watch
(12) Colorado State
This is about 60% about Colorado State and 40% their opponent. The 12/5 upset is far from uncommon, with the 12-seed going 55-101 since the tourney expanded in 1986. This is much closer to a 11/6 upset (in which the lower seed has gone 61-95) than a 13/4 upset (in which the 13-seed has a 33-123 record. Memphis is a bit of an enigma, with a great resume, but terrible computer metrics in which they rank 51st and 60th in KenPom and Bart Torvik, respectively. In both instances, they are behind CSU. Teams with similar metrics to the Rams don’t always get in, but when they do they have made some noise.
Both my model and
model are high on the Rams, with Nate picking them to win outright and my model gives them the best odds all 12-seeds, and it is very rare at least one of those 12 seeds fails to advance.
(11) Drake
This team just seems destined to win a game, after dropping tight first round games as a popular upset pick the past two seasons and getting snubbed out of a bid in 2022. In fact, the last time Drake won a tournament game is the last time they were an 11-seed (2021). They have power-5 wins against Vanderbilt, Miami (for whatever that is worth, I guess), and Kansas State, all away from home. Drake ranks 17th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage and 24th in preventing offensive rebounds on defense. A study from Southern Utah University found that “every additional rebound a team averages is correlated with a 2.62 and a 1.99 percentage point increase in the probability that the team will make it to the Round of 32 and to the Sweet 16 respectively”. My model has Drake beating Mizzou outright with a 55.3% probability.
Stay tuned for more coverage on the NCAA Tournament!
Indiana and Woodson announce the two parties would be parting ways at the end of the season. This comes amid an expectation that he would be fired after this year.
We’ll get to the Buckeyes later….
Don’t get me started on the black-and-white nature of the quad system. As if a win over the number one team means the same as a win over the number 50 team on the road…but I digress.
Honestly both West Virginia and Ohio State should be in—in place of UNC and Texas—in my opinion, but with the media going deep on WVU’s case, I decided to discuss Ohio State for the sake of variety.