Re-Framing Pitcher Milestones
With the game changing, we must also change what we consider to be milestone achievements for pitchers.
There are some statistical thresholds in the game of baseball that are a sort of “right of passage”. For batters, think 500 career home runs or 3,000 hits. For starting pitchers, it’s 300 career wins, 3,000 career strikeouts, and 20 wins in a single season. These milestone numbers have held strong for many decades. However, the game, particularly for pitching, has changed. Starters are pitching fewer innings per game and per season but striking out batters at a historic rate. Comparing the time-period of 1969-2008 (the 50 seasons following the lowering of the mound and “year of the pitcher”) against the nine-year span of 2016-2024, we see drastic changes in pitcher statistics.1
This clearly shows that the game of pitching has changed. We can’t keep using these traditional milestone numbers to deem pitchers elite. When the game changes, it is only fair (and accurate) to change also how we judge success.
Re-Assessing Wins Milestones
If we adjust current pitchers’ average decisions per season to be in line with the 24.3 number of old, we can better assess how these pitchers stack up against their predecessors.2 Below is a table of current active starting pitchers, along with their current win total and what their win total would if we saw no drop in decision rate over time.
Verlander, who at 41 years old and currently on the injured list, is a long shot to reach the 300-win mark. Given the ages of some of the others, Gerrit Cole is the only one with a mildly realistic shot, and even so the 33-year-old would need to average 16.2 wins over the next 9 seasons, plus the remainder of this season. With the adjustment, though, Verlander is on the cusp of 300.
In terms of single-season win milestones, 20 has long been the magic number. However, when adjusting for the drop in decision rate, 18 wins (well, 17.6 to be exact) is the 20-win equivalent in the current pitching environment.
Strikeouts
Assessing the strikeout milestones is slightly more complex. While the average innings-per-season and per-game have dropped in recent years, strikeout rates have risen at a much faster rate. While pitchers have had less opportunity to accumulate strikeouts (via fewer innings), they are more than making up for this by striking out batters at a rate approximately 50% greater than in the past. Between 1969 and 2008, starters were averaging 5.8 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9). In recent years, K/9 has risen to 8.7. We need to assume at least some of this increase in K/9 is attributed to pitchers not pitching as long into games, and hence going more “all-out” when they are on the mound. But we also must not overlook recent innovations in pitching training and pitch-tracking technology, the development of new pitches, and the fact that pitchers are throwing harder than ever before. Frankly, it is harder than ever to hit a baseball. If we were to assume that half of the rise in strikeout rate is attributed to a drop in volume, we can compare strikeout numbers of today against those of the past. Below shows the top-40 career strikeout leaders, with the current players on the list having their strikeout totals adjusted.3
We see the results going in the opposite direction of our wins adjustment. The 3,000-strikeout mark today is actually less impressive than in years past. The drop in IP does not make up for the drastic rise in K-rate. Based on my calculations, the traditional 3,000 career strikeout mark is more equivalent to 3,458 strikeouts today.
New Milestones
With the game changing, it is necessary to change what we consider to be statistical milestones. The near-extinction of the 300-win pitcher should take nothing away from our overall assessment of pitcher accomplishments. Similarly, we should keep in mind that the rise in strikeout rate make 3,000 career K’s a bit less impressive. Below are the new milestones, based on my adjustments.
They are not particularly round and clean numbers, but they do better reflect the baseball environment we are in today. When the game changes, how we view it mush change as well.
Strike-shortened years of 1981 and 1994 were excluded, along with the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
A starter must complete 5 full innings to be eligible for a decision (Win/Loss)
Zack Greinke was included in the categorization of current players, given that he just retired after last season and played through nearly all of the 2016-2024 window