Mookie Betts' Injury Shakes Up NL MVP Race
Which players saw their MVP chances rise the most following the star's fractured hand. Plus, an update on the AL race.
You hate to see it. Nobody ever likes to see a player suffer an injury, at no fault of their own, like Mookie Betts did on Sunday when he took a 98-mph fastball to the left hand in the seventh inning of the Dodgers game against the Royals. Betts, a consensus frontrunner in the race for the National League’s Most Valuble Player Award, was placed on the injured list Monday and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, according to Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. Baseball fans will be stripped of watching the future hall of famer in his prime, and that the Dodgers will have to navigate at least the next 30-plus games without their star. This also throws a curveball in the NL MVP race. I re-ran the MVP predictive model I introduced a little over a week ago (go back and read: "What Makes a Baseball MVP" for more on that) based on updated stats, while both accounting for and not accounting for the missed time Mookie Betts will face due to his injury.
If Betts Never Got Injured
In an alternate universe where the ball missed Mookie’s hand, or some magic happened and a bird flew in front of the pitch and deflected the ball (à la Randy Johnson in 2001), below is how the current NL MVP probabilities would look:
When I adjust the projections for Mookie Betts to account for his expected 35-or-so missed games, the MVP odds shift a bit.
The players with at least a 0.1% chance remain the same, but some players stood to gain more than others. The differences are summarized below.
Betts’ teammate Shohei Ohtani saw his MVP chances rise 11.4%. Unfortunately for Ohtani though, he will obviously not have Betts hitting right in front of him, creating opportunities to drive in runs. Shohei will now likely hit leadoff, and still however have the protection of Will Smith hitting behind him.
Quick Check-In on the AL
Let’s not overlook the exciting race still going on in the American League. Since I released my initial projections on June 9th, Aaron Judge has surged into the lead. Last week, he was tied with Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson at 17.1%, but his recent streak of red-hot hitting has pushed him into the lead. Since May 20th, Judge is hitting .363 with an MLB-leading 1.359 OPS, 268 wRC+, and 13 homers.1
I hate having to write an article like this, especially when the injury happens to such a great player and great “baseball guy” as Mookie. But that’s the nature of baseball, players get hurt, a lot, and seemingly more so this year than in the past. Get well soon, Mookie, the game is better with you in it!
Major League Leaderboards - 2024 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball