How Have #1 Overall Draft Picks Fared In The MLB?
Amid the much-anticipated debut of Paul Skenes, do #1's live up to the hype?
Last Saturday, Paul Skenes, the number-one overall draft pick in the 2023 MLB draft, debuted for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Skenes is arguably the most hyped prospect since Stephen Strausburg in 2010, and the energy around baseball leading up to his debut reflected that. Skenes didn’t particularly light the world on fire in his debut versus the Cubs, giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs while striking out 7 in just 4 innings1. While it wasn’t horrible, it was a far cry from the 0.99 ERA and 45 strikeouts he posted in just 27 innings in AAA Indianapolis this year2. This got me thinking about how number-one draft picks have fared, both in their rookie season and throughout the entirety of their career in Major League Baseball.
The History of the Draft
The MLB draft (officially the Rule 4 draft; also known as the First Year Player Draft) has been going on in since 1965, and since then 40 position players and 19 pitchers have been chosen first overall. Of those players, 4 have become Hall of Famers (Harold Baines, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, and Joe Mauer), one was Alex Rodriguez (a would-be HOF’er if not for his PED usage), and many more became stars of the game, including likely future Hall of Famers Bryce Harper and Gerrit Cole. There have also been some busts. Mark Appel, drafted in 2013, has only pitched 10 innings in the majors. 2014 overall number-one Brady Aiken never even made it to the big leagues. Frankly, being a number-one overall pick is no guarantee of success. Number-one picks have ranged from generating a career Wins Above Replacement of 113.6 (A-Rod) to -1.4 (Delmon Young).
Ranking the Number-One Overall Picks
Who were the best, and the worst, to be taken first in the draft? Below is a table ranking the 40-position players by career Wins Above Replacement statistics.
Alex Rodriquez had the best career of any number-one pick, having both the highest total career WAR and per-game WAR, although young Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman looks as though he may be on track to rival A-Rod’s success. 2018 Hall of Fame inductee Chipper Jones has the second-most career WAR, followed by fellow HOF’er Ken Griffey Jr. Let’s now have a look at the 19 pitchers...
While Gerrit Cole leads in terms of total career WAR (with David Price sneaky-close behind), Stephen Strasburg was arguably the most dominant when he was able to take the mound. In his injury-shortened career, Strasburg generated 14.8 WAR per 100 games, more than any other number-one pick. Unfortunately, his lengthy stints on the injured list and subsequent pre-mature retirement earlier this year limited his total career WAR to 36.6. I discussed in my last article (An Effort to Better Value Baseball Players - Part I) that Strasburg’s plague of injuries robbed baseball of a special talent, and this is just more evidence of that.
In Their Rookie Season
Some number one picks, like Adley Rutschman and Carlos Correa, started off strong and never looked back. Others like Delmon Young and Matt Bush were unable to continue the success they saw in their debut year. There were also stars like Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hall of Famer Harold Baines who got off to terrible starts but turned it around to have some great seasons. Below is a ranking of the #1-pick position players by WAR per game (WAR/100 games for ease of interpretation).
On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg had one of his most dominant seasons in his rookie year. In fact, the pitchers appeared to perform better than the position players in their debut year, with no pitcher being worse than replacement-level3 in his rookie season.
The Best Rookies
What players were best in their rookie season, regardless of draft-pick status? Below we see a table ranking the top-20 best position players in their rookie year in the MLB draft era (since 1965).
It is interesting to see so many active players on this list (6 of the top-20 rookies ever are still in the league). Mike Trout is another case of someone who had (and still has) so much talent and potential, but due to injuries has been unable reap the full benefits on the field. I talked about Trout on this topic also in my article last week, and
wrote an excellent piece on the impact of Trout’s injuries on his career (Mike Trout and the Fragile Pursuit of GOATdom).The pitchers are a slightly different story. Only one of the top-20 rookie pitchers, Trevor Rodgers, is still in the league today. Dwight Gooden was magnificent in his first year, and Stephen Strasburg, who we just discussed as having the best rookie season of number-one draft picks, had the 7th-best rookie year of any pitcher in the draft era.
Does a #1-Pick’s Rookie Season Foreshadow His Career?
Below is a chart showing career WAR/100 games versus rookie season WAR/100 games for the qualified #1 picks.
As you can see, most points hug the trendline pretty closely, suggesting career performance tends to follow rookie season performance. In fact, there is a 0.853 correlation coefficient between the two WAR values. This translates to rookie-year WAR/100Games accounting for roughly 73% of the variation in career WAR/100Games. This does not quite generalize to baseball players as a whole, however. Overall in the draft-era, there is just a 0.642 correlation between the two, explaining just 41.2% of the variation. Ultimately, we can expect that a number-one pick’s career will follow his rookie season is more likely than a player not drafter first overall.
Interesting to see how the highest-touted prospects have shaped-out, both in their debut year and over their career. I am looking forward to seeing how Paul Skenes evolves. Fittingly, as I publish this article, he is taking the mound for his second ever start against the Cubs. For his sake, and the sake of the sport, I truly hope he evolves into the player we dream he could be.
Pirates 10-9 Cubs (May 11, 2024) Final Score - ESPN
Paul Skenes Amateur, College & Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com
Essentially a player whose value is between that of a AAA player and Major Leaguer.