Forgive me, because I know this is going to sound reductive, but if the numbers say that on average the team that made the World Series was the fifth best by Win% before, and it's still fifth place now, wouldn't that mean that randomness prevailed before and still prevails now, and couldn't that be used as an argument against playoff expansion? Fifth place is a long way from the best.
The inventors of the World Series knew what they were doing. By not creating a tournament, and locking out every team that was not good enough to win the league, they allowed as little randomness to seep in as possible. When they went to the LCS in 1969, it allowed some randomness in, but it was by and large okay, but it feels like the eight team playoff destroyed all of that, and everything beyond that has just been adding fuel to the already burning bonfire.
What do you think is the probability of the better team winning a baseball series? 60%? Is that generous? Either way, there's a lot of room for luck to squeak in there, meaning that minimizing the total number of playoff series should be the goal if you're looking to create a meaningful World Series. Of course, baseball is not looking to do that. They're looking strictly to line their pockets, which is why the Super Bowl is now watched by one third of the country, instead of the World Series, which used to be watched by one third of the country.
I think somewhere along the way, baseball lost sight that people don't watch the World Series just because it's the World Series. They want to see great teams battling each other, and does two teams that are the fifth best team in the league on average satisfy that requirement? Evidently not, as the falloff in the popularity of the World Series indicates that people are not buying this. They'll buy a WS like the one that's currently happening, because it's one great team against another, but one like 2014? Nobody cares.
I wish this analysis went a bit further back in time, so I could tell whether I'm looking with rose-tinted glasses back at the LCS era, but I just don't recall the WS so often being conducted between two third place teams back then. It's possible that I'm wrong about this, because the decline of baseball's popularity did begin around the time of the LCS's institution, indicating to me that the general public did not like this expanded playoff idea, so it's possible that it sucked back then too.
The genie is out of the bottle now. We cannot go back to the good old days, so in the modern era I just have to watch the WS that contain great teams (like the current one), and skip the ones that don't (like the last one).
Appreciate the response. The reason I did this was essentially to show that expanding the playoff field further than the League Championship Series has not notable changed the ultimate outcome of the postseason. I’m not considering a world in which it is ONLY the best team in the AL and NL that meet in the World Series, like to old days, because frankly that ship has sailed. While it would technically be the more fair/accurate way to determine a true champion, it’s not realistic in this era of sports. Honestly, what should be done (I’m not advocating this though) is to just give the best team the trophy at the end of the year.
I was trying to combat the opponents of playoff expansion since the Division Series was established. While it would not have added much to my argument or the point of the piece, o would have liked to go back further…but I just didn’t have the time for that (unfortunately this is not my day job, haha).
I appreciate your feedback and understand your perspective. Thanks for reading and thinking about this so deeply!
Wow, I've been waiting for this sort of outstanding analysis for literally years. If I am interpreting this correctly, this is a very important insight on several dimensions. First, I want to make sure I understand your analysis here and the meaning of the words "playoff-expansion skeptics" when you say:
"...Average winning percentage of teams making the Fall Classic has remained essentially unchanged across playoff expansion. In fact, contrary to the playoff-expansion skeptics, we see teams with better winning percentages, higher WAR, and better SRS ratings winning the World Series under more expanded playoffs."
Specifically, am I correct to interpret this as saying that the expanded playoff format is essentially meaningless from a World Series results perspective? If so, does that also mean that teams below some minimal high-level performance at season's end (e.g., below say the top two teams in each League) are largely irrelevant to the World Series outcome on average?
If so, this resonates with me. I'm a huge skeptic on the expansion of any playoffs not because of some counterintuitive dilution of the end result from adding teams, rather, that the entire concept of expanding the Playoffs by adding lesser teams to the mix is almost always a waste of time.
What say you?
Presuming you agree with that, the consequences are significant. For one, it contradicts the popular notion in the media that teams in the mix of 12 or near spot 12 should be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline by diluting their farm system talent in exchange for a hope and a prayer of getting to the World Series that rarely happens.
This would suggest that only if you are one of the 4 teams or so with the highest World Series odds and a gap to fill at the deadline should you be buying. Everyone else is just more likely hurting their futures for a futile effort. Again, this strikes me as undeniably true (see 2023 Angels and 2024 Padres as recent examples).
Thanks, Grant. Always appreciate your thoughts. I was intrigued when you said that teams “in the mix of 12 or near spot 12 shouldn’t be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline”. Anytime a team is in that spot, no matter what the numbers or history says, will always think can be the ones to defy the odds. Fan perception also play a big role - it’s not a good look if you throw in the towel at the deadline when a playoff spot is within reach, no matter what makes sense mathematically or financially.
Forgive me, because I know this is going to sound reductive, but if the numbers say that on average the team that made the World Series was the fifth best by Win% before, and it's still fifth place now, wouldn't that mean that randomness prevailed before and still prevails now, and couldn't that be used as an argument against playoff expansion? Fifth place is a long way from the best.
The inventors of the World Series knew what they were doing. By not creating a tournament, and locking out every team that was not good enough to win the league, they allowed as little randomness to seep in as possible. When they went to the LCS in 1969, it allowed some randomness in, but it was by and large okay, but it feels like the eight team playoff destroyed all of that, and everything beyond that has just been adding fuel to the already burning bonfire.
What do you think is the probability of the better team winning a baseball series? 60%? Is that generous? Either way, there's a lot of room for luck to squeak in there, meaning that minimizing the total number of playoff series should be the goal if you're looking to create a meaningful World Series. Of course, baseball is not looking to do that. They're looking strictly to line their pockets, which is why the Super Bowl is now watched by one third of the country, instead of the World Series, which used to be watched by one third of the country.
I think somewhere along the way, baseball lost sight that people don't watch the World Series just because it's the World Series. They want to see great teams battling each other, and does two teams that are the fifth best team in the league on average satisfy that requirement? Evidently not, as the falloff in the popularity of the World Series indicates that people are not buying this. They'll buy a WS like the one that's currently happening, because it's one great team against another, but one like 2014? Nobody cares.
I wish this analysis went a bit further back in time, so I could tell whether I'm looking with rose-tinted glasses back at the LCS era, but I just don't recall the WS so often being conducted between two third place teams back then. It's possible that I'm wrong about this, because the decline of baseball's popularity did begin around the time of the LCS's institution, indicating to me that the general public did not like this expanded playoff idea, so it's possible that it sucked back then too.
The genie is out of the bottle now. We cannot go back to the good old days, so in the modern era I just have to watch the WS that contain great teams (like the current one), and skip the ones that don't (like the last one).
Appreciate the response. The reason I did this was essentially to show that expanding the playoff field further than the League Championship Series has not notable changed the ultimate outcome of the postseason. I’m not considering a world in which it is ONLY the best team in the AL and NL that meet in the World Series, like to old days, because frankly that ship has sailed. While it would technically be the more fair/accurate way to determine a true champion, it’s not realistic in this era of sports. Honestly, what should be done (I’m not advocating this though) is to just give the best team the trophy at the end of the year.
I was trying to combat the opponents of playoff expansion since the Division Series was established. While it would not have added much to my argument or the point of the piece, o would have liked to go back further…but I just didn’t have the time for that (unfortunately this is not my day job, haha).
I appreciate your feedback and understand your perspective. Thanks for reading and thinking about this so deeply!
Wow, I've been waiting for this sort of outstanding analysis for literally years. If I am interpreting this correctly, this is a very important insight on several dimensions. First, I want to make sure I understand your analysis here and the meaning of the words "playoff-expansion skeptics" when you say:
"...Average winning percentage of teams making the Fall Classic has remained essentially unchanged across playoff expansion. In fact, contrary to the playoff-expansion skeptics, we see teams with better winning percentages, higher WAR, and better SRS ratings winning the World Series under more expanded playoffs."
Specifically, am I correct to interpret this as saying that the expanded playoff format is essentially meaningless from a World Series results perspective? If so, does that also mean that teams below some minimal high-level performance at season's end (e.g., below say the top two teams in each League) are largely irrelevant to the World Series outcome on average?
If so, this resonates with me. I'm a huge skeptic on the expansion of any playoffs not because of some counterintuitive dilution of the end result from adding teams, rather, that the entire concept of expanding the Playoffs by adding lesser teams to the mix is almost always a waste of time.
What say you?
Presuming you agree with that, the consequences are significant. For one, it contradicts the popular notion in the media that teams in the mix of 12 or near spot 12 should be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline by diluting their farm system talent in exchange for a hope and a prayer of getting to the World Series that rarely happens.
This would suggest that only if you are one of the 4 teams or so with the highest World Series odds and a gap to fill at the deadline should you be buying. Everyone else is just more likely hurting their futures for a futile effort. Again, this strikes me as undeniably true (see 2023 Angels and 2024 Padres as recent examples).
Thanks again for a terrific piece.
Thanks, Grant. Always appreciate your thoughts. I was intrigued when you said that teams “in the mix of 12 or near spot 12 shouldn’t be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline”. Anytime a team is in that spot, no matter what the numbers or history says, will always think can be the ones to defy the odds. Fan perception also play a big role - it’s not a good look if you throw in the towel at the deadline when a playoff spot is within reach, no matter what makes sense mathematically or financially.