Weekend College Hoops Slate: March 7th-8th
The final weekend - featuring some conference tourneys
The Weekend Ahead:
We have reached the finish line. Most teams are making their last push for better conference seeding, while some non-power conferences have already begun their postseason. I wish I could say this final weekend was loaded, but frankly their are only a few real meaningful, blockbuster matchups on the docket. Even the top-10 showdown between Auburn and Alabama isn’t quite as sexy as it would have been a few weeks ago. Auburn will likely lose it’s #1 ranking on Monday after losing by double-digits to Texas A&M on Tuesday. Duke and UNC is always an iconic matchup, and we generally can throw out the rankings when these two archrivals face off. However, this Duke squad is like really, REALLY freaking good, and UNC, well, is merely on the outside looking in of the NCAA tournament. ESPN BET currently lists Duke as a 10.5-point road favorite. Arizona and Kansas square off in a matchup that would have sounded a bit more enticing back in November, when Kansas was the pre-season #1 team and Arizona was ranked in the top-10. Now, we have an unranked Jayhawks squad squaring up against a #24 Arizona team. Nevertheless, we have a few intriguing games to keep an eye on, especially a sure “bubble-burster” in Texas vs. Oklahoma.
Key Games
Saturday:
(6)St. John’s at (20)Marquette (St. John’s -0.9, 53% win probability)
(25)Mississippi State at Arkansas (Arkansas -1.3 54% win probability)
*Bubble game for Arkansas
(24)Arizona at Kansas (Kansas -1.1 54% win probability)
(19)Kentucky at (15)Missouri (Missouri -3.1, 61% win probability)
(7)Alabama at (1)Auburn (Auburn -5.5, 69% win probability)
Texas at Oklahoma (Texas -2.1, 57% win probability)
*Bubble game for Texas and Oklahoma
Ohio State at Indiana (Indiana -2.5, 59% win probability)
*Bubble game for Ohio State and Indiana
Sunday:
(17)Michigan at (8)Michigan State (Michigan State -6.0, 70% win probability)
Iowa at Nebraska (Nebraska -3.6, 63% win probability)
*Bubble game for Nebraska
*AP ranking in parentheses
Updated College Basketball Elo Ratings
After this week’s loss, Auburn is now tied with Houston in the top spot. Michigan plummeted 10 spots to 23rd while Big Ten foe Maryland rose 5 places. Georgia and Oklahoma are making a last-ditch effort for an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament, as they rise 8 spots and 6 spots, respectively, this week.
Biggest Risers*
New Mexico State (+21 spots)
Cal Poly (+21 spots)
Manhattan (+20 spots)
Honorable mention:
Illinois (+7 - up to 27th)
Georgia (+8 - up to 39th)
Biggest Fallers*
Marist (-32 spots)
Army(-22 spots)
Appalachian State (-18 spots)
Honorable mention:
Michigan (-10 - down to 23rd)
Mississippi State (-5 - down to 32nd)
*Since the February 28th
Updated Bracketology
Keep up with the rankings and game predictions here: https://open.substack.com/pub/beyondthescoresports/p/college-basketball-ratings-and-predictions?r=3gmk5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web