Weekend College Hoops Slate: Feb 15th-16th
A showdown between #1 and #2 headline the weekend
The Weekend Ahead:
Guys, no excuses to avoid taking your wife or girlfriend out for Valentines Day, because you won’t miss any college basketball. The only matchup featuring two teams inside KenPom’s top-100 is UCLA at Indiana. The Hoosiers recently announced Mike Woodson will not return to coach next year, so not much on the line in that one. However, we will be richly rewarded the rest of the weekend. Saturday kicks off with a big matchup for the bubble picture, as John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks — who find themselves flip-flopping between Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” — take on 8th-ranked Texas A&M in College Station. The Big XII is highlighted by a top-15 clash between Houston and Arizona, while #7 Purdue hosts #16 Wisconsin in the biggest Big Ten game of the day. The marquee matchup is the Iron Bowl, when #2 Alabama hosts #1 Auburn in a huge game that may end up influencing who will get the number-one overall seed on Selection Sunday. The weekend wraps up in the Big Apple, when St. John’s hosts Creighton in a matchup which will be pivotal in determining the eventual Big East regular season champion. Here are the key games to keep an eye on.
Saturday:
(6)Houston at (13)Arizona (Houston -1.7, 56% win probability)
(1)Auburn at (2)Alabama (Alabama -2.2 58% win probability)
(11)Michigan State at Illinois (Illinois -0.9, 53% win probability)
(16)Wisconsin at (7)Purdue (Purdue -4.8, 66% win probability)
(22)Mississippi State at (19)Ole Miss (Ole Miss -4.4, 65% win probability)
Sunday
(20)Michigan at Ohio State (Michigan -0.4 51% win prob)
(24)Creighton at (9)St. John’s (St. Johns -5.2, 68% win prob)
*AP ranking in parentheses
Updated College Basketball Elo Ratings
Duke’s loss sent Alabama to #2, setting up a HUGE Iron Bowl when the Auburn Tigers head to Tuscaloosa for a first-ever regular season SEC game to feature the nation’s top-2 teams. Even with suffering a loss at ‘Nova on Wednesday, St. John’s rose to #7 after it’s win at UConn. Elsewhere in the Big East, Marquette, which got out to a strong 18-3 start, has since lost three of its last four and has fallen to 18th in our Elo rankings
Biggest Risers*
Robert Morris (+25 spots)
Abilene Christian (+24 spots)
Colgate (+23 spots)
Honorable mention:
Illinois (+5 - up to 27th)
Kansas State (+9 - up to 48th)
Biggest Fallers*
Loyola Marymount (-25 spots)
Texas A&M-C.C. (-25 spots)
Old Dominion (-23 spots)
Honorable mention:
Oklahoma (-10 - down to 45th)
*Since the February 7th
Updated Tournament Odds
Keep up with the rankings and game predictions here: https://open.substack.com/pub/beyondthescoresports/p/college-basketball-ratings-and-predictions?r=3gmk5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web