Selection Sunday Bracketology
Final update
Champ Week Recap
Things have been fairly chalky in this conference tournament season, aside for a few surprises like 16-17 St. Francis (PA), Auburn going down in the SEC semi’s yesterday to Florida, and Wisconsin beating Sparty to punch a ticket to today’s Big Ten final.
We have a few championship games left today, here is what my model projects for those.
Bid-Thief Watch
With Colorado State locking up the Mountain West Conference yesterday, they secured their spot in the dance, which likely means one of Indiana, Texas, Boise State, or UNC is out. The Atlantic-10 Conference is still probably the likeliest conference to produce a bid-thief. Top-seed VCU faces George Mason in the championship game today. Mason is not on Lunardi’s bracket picture at all outside of a conference title. KenPom gives VCU a 73% chance of winning today. Memphis, a projected top-8 seed, is the only at-large candidate that the American Athletic Conference could produce, but should Memphis fall in the AAC tournament to UAB today, the bubble will shrink further. KenPom gives Memphis a 73% chance to win today as well.
Beyond The Score Bracketology
Below is my final updated bracketology before the selection show. I will not have time to update it between the final championship games and the selection, but frankly barring any bid-thief scenarios, nothing should change much. Remember that this bracketology is based solely on Elo ratings, while I personally think that Ohio State and Wake Forest are surely out, and Texas is surely in, this goes strictly off of the numbers (So lets see how much eye-test and committee bias come into play…).
T-minus-5 hours until the selection show. Let’s see how it all shakes out!