College Football Bowl Predictions - Part III
Projected lines and win probabilities for Monday 12/30 through Saturday 1/4
We’re past Christmas now, and have seen plenty of exciting bowl games, proving that teams still care about the non-playoff bowls. In this preview, we are back to some playoff games with the New Years Day (and Eve) Quarterfinal games.
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. #19 Missouri
Line: Missouri -3
Model: Missouri -17.9
Elo: Missouri -4.4 (65% Win Probability)
ReliaQuest Bowl
#11 Alabama vs. Michigan
Line: Alabama -12
Model: Alabama -3.5
Elo: Alabama -3.4 (62% Win Probability)
Sun Bowl
Washington vs. Louisville
Line: Louisville -2
Model: Louisville -10.6
Elo: Louisville -3.6 (63% Win Probability)
Citrus Bowl
#15 Illinois vs. # 20 South Carolina
Line: South Carolina -10
Model: Illinois -4.1
Elo: South Carolina -7.5 (75% Win Probability)
Texas Bowl
LSU vs. Baylor
Line: Baylor -3.5
Model: LSU -13.5
Elo: LSU -1.6 (56% Win Probability)
Fiesta Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal)
#6 Penn State vs. #3 Boise State
Line: Penn State -11
Model: Boise State -9.1
Elo: Penn State -3.7 (63% Win Probability)
Peach Bowl (CPF Quarterfinal)
#5 Texas vs. #4 Arizona State
Line: Texas -13
Model: Texas -7.4
Elo: Texas -7.3 (74% Win Probability)
Rose Bowl (CPF Quarterfinal)
#8 Ohio State vs. #1 Oregon
Line: Ohio State -2.5
Model: Oregon -37.1
Elo: Oregon -6.1 (71% Win Probability)
Sugar Bowl (CPF Quarterfinal)*
#2 Georgia vs. #7 Notre Dame
Line: Georgia -2
Model: Georgia -40.4
Elo: Georgia -4.6 (66% Win Probability)
*(Note model and Elo assumes Georgia QB Carson Beck is playing - he has been ruled out for the season. View this prediction with caution!)
Gator Bowl
#14 Ole Miss vs. Duke
Line: Ole Miss -17
Model: Ole Miss -42.4
Elo: Ole Miss -8.7 (78% Win Probability)
First Responder Bowl
Texas State vs. North Texas
Line: Texas State -14
Model: Texas State -17.8
Elo: Texas State -5.7 (69% Win Probability)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota
Line: Va. Tech -7.5
Model: Va. Tech -18.7
Elo: Minnesota -2 (57% Win Probability)
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty vs. Buffalo
Line: Buffalo -2.5
Model: Liberty -3.6
Elo: Liberty -7.1 (74% Win Probability)
Keep up with the model here: