College Football Bowl Predictions - Part I
Projected lines and win probabilities for the start of bowl season through Christmas
While the bowl season tends to start slow, with the big games coming closer to New Year’s Day, this year we are treated with the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff (amid some yawners).
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Line: South Alabama -7.5
Model: South Alabama -5.7
Elo: South Alabama -8.4 (77% Win Probability)
Frisco Bowl
West Virginia vs. #25 Memphis
Line: Memphis -4.5
Model: West Virginia -14.7
Elo: Memphis -5.1 (68% Win Probability)
Boca Raton Bowl
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky
Line: JMU -7.5
Model: JMU -8.6
Elo: JMU -21.8 (57% Win Probability)
LA Bowl
#24 UNLV vs. California
Line: Cal -1.5
Model: UNLV -19.1
Elo: UNLV -4.9 (67% Win Probability)
New Orleans Bowl
Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern
Line: Georgia Southern -6
Model: Georgia Southern -23.2
Elo: Georgia Southern -2.7 (59% Win Probability)
Cure Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Ohio
Line: JSU -3
Model: JSU -18.3
Elo: Ohio -0.7 (53% Win Probability)
Gasparilla Bowl
Florida vs. Tulane
Line: Florida -14.5
Model: Florida -36.6
Elo: Florida -6.2 (71% Win Probability)
CFP First Round
#10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame
Line: Notre Dame -7.5
Model: Notre Dame -31.2
Elo: Notre Dame -12.5 (86% Win Probability)
CFP First Round
#11 SMU at #6 Penn State
Line: Penn State -8.5
Model: Penn State -36.1
Elo: Penn State -7 (73% Win Probability)
CFP First Round
#12 Clemson at #5 Texas
Line: Texas -2.5
Model: Texas -13.9
Elo: Texas -12.3 (86% Win Probability)
CFP First Round
#9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -7
Model: Ohio State -23.5
Elo: Ohio State -7.7 (75% Win Probability)
Myrtle Beach Bowl
UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Line: UTSA -8.5
Model: UTSA -12.2
Elo: UTSA -5.1 (68% Win Probability)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois
Line: NIU -3
Model: Fresno Sate -10.7
Elo: Fresno State -0.4 (51% Win Probability)
Hawaiʻi Bowl
San José State vs. South Florida
Line: San José State -4
Model: San José State-11.3
Elo: San José State -3.0 (61% Win Probability)
Keep up with the model here: